Nature Climate Change | Climate Feedback

Oil crisis, financial crisis, total crisis

Cross-posted from The Great Beyond

world energy outlook cover.bmpThe Paris-based International Energy Agency came out with its annual World Energy Outlook report yesterday. And it makes for gloomy, and expensive, reading (Press release, Calgary Herald, Greentech Media).

The agency bases its findings on a reference scenario that assumes no new government policies are introduced. In this scenario, the IEA says that between now and 2030 world energy demand will grow by 1.6% a year, requiring energy-supply investments of $26.3 trillion (yep TRILLION dollars). “Yet the credit squeeze could delay spending, potentially setting up a supply-crunch that could choke economic recovery,” says the press release.

A week ago, Reuters pre-empted the report, with a story focusing on the slim chance we have to limit warming of the planet to 2 degrees Celsius. “The scale of the challenge … is immense,” IEA has warned.

The IEA has been busy. Today it also released its prediction for how much oil will be needed globally next year. It lowered its estimate for 2009 by 0.8% to 86.5 million barrels a day (Bloomberg).

The agency also lowered its oil price assumption for 2009 to $80 a barrel from the $110 forecast it held during the past three months (AFP).

Katharine Sanderson


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